DIS TICARET ACIGI BEKLENTILERIN UZERINDE…
TURKIYE ISTATISTIK KURUMU DIS
TICARET VERILERINE GORE; IHRACAT 2013 YILI ARALIK AYINDA 2012 YILININ AYNI
DONEMINE GORE YUZDE 4,9 ARTARAK 13 MILYON 220 BIN DOLAR OLMUS, ITHALAT ISE
YUZDE 16,7`LIK ARTISLA 23 MILYAR 137 MILYON DOLARA YUKSELMISTIR. DIS TICARET
ACIGI ISE 2013 YILI ARALIK AYINDA YUZDE 37`LIK BIR ARTIS GOSTEREREK 9,92 MILYAR
DOLARA YUKSELDI. 2013 YILI TOPLAM DIS TICARET ACIGI DA 99 MILYAR 782 MILYON
DOLAR OLARAK GERCEKLESTI. IHRACATIN ITHALATI KARSILAMA ORANI 2012 ARALIK
AYINDAKI YUZDE 63,6`DAN 2013 ARALIK AYINDA YUZDE 57,1`E GERILEDI.
HEM
ARALIK AYI DIS TICARET ACIGININ, HEM DE 2013 YILI DIS TICARET ACIGININ
BEKLENTILERIN UZERINDE GELDIGINI GORUYORUZ. PIYASANIN BEKLENTISI ARALIK AYINDA
7,10 MILYAR DOLAR CIVARINDA BIR DIS TICARET ACIGI VERILMESI YONUNDEYDI. AYNI
ZAMANDA DIS TICARET ACIGI, ORTA VADELI PROGRAM`DA (OVP) YER ALAN 98 MILYAR
DOLAR HEDEFININ 1,8 MILYAR DOLAR UZERINDE GERCEKLESMIS OLDU. ALTIN ITHALATINA
BAKTIGIMIZ ZAMAN ISE 2012`DE 8 MILYAR 529 MILYON DOLAR OLAN ALTIN ITHALATININ
YUZDE 90`LIK ARTISLA 2013 YILINDA 16 MILYAR 225 MILYON DOLARA CIKTIGINI, IKI
YILIN ARALIK AYLARI KARSILASTIRILDIGINDA ISE 2013 YILI ARALIK AYINDA 1 MILYAR
477 MILYON DOLARLIK ALTIN ITHALATIYLA YUZDE 302`LIK ARTIS KAYDEDILDIGI
GORULMEKTEDIR.
ALT KALEMLER INCELENDIGINDE IMALAT SANAYI SEKTORU
IHRACATININ 141 MILYAR 438 MILYON DOLAR ILE BU ALANDA ILK SIRAYI ALDIGINI
GORUYORUZ. ITHALATTA ISE ARA MALLAR ITHALATI 183 MILYAR 812 MILYON DOLAR ILE BU
ALANDA BASI CEKIYOR. EN COK TICARET YAPTIGIMIZ BOLGE OLAN AVRUPA BIRLIGI`NE
OLAN TICARETIN ISE YUZDE 6,6`LIK ARTIS GOSTERDIGINI GOZLEMLIYORUZ. AB
ULKELERININ IHRACATTAKI PAYI 2012 YILI ARALIK AYINDA YUZDE 39,3 IKEN, 2013 YILI
ARALIK AYINDA YUZDE 39,9`A YUKSELDI. BU DONEM ICERISINDE EN COK IHRACAT YAPILAN
ULKE 1 MILYAR 224 MILYON DOLARLA IRAK OLURKEN, ITHALATTA ILK SIRAYI 2 MILYAR
477 MILYON DOLAR ILE ALMANYA ALDI.
ENVER ERKAN ALB MENKUL DEGERLER
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TURLU BILGI, DEGERLENDIRME, YORUM VE ISTATISTIKI SEKIL VE DEGERLER HAZIRLANDIGI
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UGRAYABILECEGI HER TURLU ZARARLARDAN DOLAYI ALB MENKUL DEGERLER A.S. SORUMLU
TUTULAMAZ.
FROM: ENVER ERKAN SENT: FRIDAY, JANUARY 31, 2014 9:07 AM
TO: `HABER@MATRIKSDATA.COM`; `HABER@FOREKS.COM`; `HABER@DIRECTFN.COM`;
`BILGI@YATIRIMYERI.COM`; `BILEHABER@GMAIL.COM`; `BULTEN@PARABORSA.NET`;
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MBIRINCI@AA.COM.TR; SEMABEKLER@PARABORSA.NET SUBJECT: ALB SECURITIES 31ST
JANUARY, 2014 FOREX DAILY REPORT
EURUSD (CPI AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ARE ON
THE MAIN POINT)
YESTERDAY, GERMANY UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE AND UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE WERE POSITIVE, WHILE GERMANY CPI WAS BELOW MARKET EXPECTATION. USA GDP WAS
3,2 PERCENT AS EXPECTED, WHILE INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS AND PENDING HOME SALES
COULD NOT MEET EXPECTATIONS. WITH BREAKING 1,3620 SUPPORT DOWNWARDS, SALES
PICKED UP AND PARITY IS CURRENTLY TRADING BELOW 1,3560 RESISTANCE.
TODAY;
EUROZONE CPI AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, GERMANY RETAIL SALES, USA PERSONAL INCOME,
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION AND SPENDING, CHICAGO PMI AND MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
WILL BE FOLLOWED. ESPECIALLY; EUROZONE CPI AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL BE ON THE
MAIN POINT.
TECHNICALLY, PARITY BROKE 1,3620 AND 1,560 LEVELS DOWNWARDS.
SELLING PRESSURE ON PARITY IS CONTINUING. IF PARITY STAYS BELOW 1,3560 LEVEL
TODAY, THEN 1,3530 AND 1,3490 LEVELS WOULD BE AIMED. WITH HELP OF EUROZONE CPI
AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, IF PARITY BREAKS 1,3560 RESISTANCE UPWARDS, THEN 1,3590
AND 1,3620 RESISTANCES WOULD BE AIMED.
RESISTANCE: 1,3560 - 1,3590 -
1,3620 SUPPORT: 1,3530 - 1,3490 - 1,3450
GOLD (1245 USD RESISTANCE SHOULD
BE FOLLOWED)
YESTERDAY USA GDP WAS 3,2 PERCENT AS EXPECTED, WHILE INITIAL
JOBLESS CLAIMS AND PENDING HOME SALES COULD NOT MEET EXPECTATIONS. WITH DOLLAR
GAINING VALUE, GOLD BROKE 1255 USD LEVEL DOWNWARDS AND CONTINUED DOWNWARD
MOVEMENT. GOLD IS CURRENTLY TRADING BELOW 1245 USD LEVEL.
TODAY; USA
PERSONAL INCOME, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION AND SPENDING, CHICAGO PMI AND MICHIGAN
CONSUMER SENTIMENT WILL BE FOLLOWED.
SALES PICKED UP ON GOLD WITH BREAKING
1255 USD LEVEL DOWNWARDS AND 1245 USD LEVEL WAS ALSO BROKEN DOWNWARDS. BUT GOLD
RECOVERED FROM 1235 USD LEVEL. TODAY, IF GOLD CONTINUES TOS TAY BELOW 1245 USD
RESISTANCE, 1235 USD LEVEL WOULD BE AIMED. WITH DATA FLOW, IF 1245 USD LEVEL IS
BROKEN UPWARDS, 1255 USD LEVEL WOULD BE AIMED.
RESISTANCE: 1245 - 1255 -
1265 SUPPORT: 1235 - 1223 - 1210
USDTRY (TRADE BALANCE WILL BE
FOLLOWED)
WE SEE THAT VOLATILITY IS STILL VERY HIGH ON USDTRY PARITY.
MOVING UPWARDS HARSHLY DURING THE DAY, USDTRY PARITY LOOSENED AGAIN FROM ITS
RESISTANCE. BUT, WITH THE STATEMENT OF CAPITAL CONTROLS NOT IN THE AGENDA,
PARITY CONTINUED TO LOOSEN. PARITY IS CURRENTLY HOLDING ABOVE 2,2500 LEVEL.

TODAY; TURKEY TRADE BALANCE, EXPECTED 7,10 BILLION DOLLARS DEFICIT, WILL BE
FOLLOWED AS WELL AS USA USA PERSONAL INCOME, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION AND SPENDING,
CHICAGO PMI AND MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT. ESPECIALLY TURKEY TRADE BALANCE IS
ON THE MAIN POINT. A WEAK TURKEY DATA MIGHT MAKE PARITY`S UPWARD MOVEMENT TO
PICK UP.
TECHNICALLY, IF PARITY BREAKS 2,2680 LEVEL, THEN 2,2800 AND
2,2900 LEVELS WOULD BE AIMED. IN DOWNWARD MOVEMENTS LINKED TO STRONG TRADE
BALANCE DATA, PARITY WOULD WITHDRAW TO 2,2600 AND 2,2470 LEVELS.

RESISTANCE: 2,2680 - 2,2800 - 2,2900 SUPPORT: 2,2600 - 2,2540 - 2,2470

SILVER (TAKES SUPPORT FROM 19,11 LEVEL)
YESTERDAY, USA GDP WAS ANNOUNCED
PARALLEL TO MARKET EXPECTATION, 3,2 PERCENT. JOBLESS CLAIMS WERE ALSO ABOVE
EXPECTED LEVEL, 348K. PENDING HOME SALES FELL BY 8,7 PERCENT UNEXPECTEDLY.
DESPITE NEGATIVE USA DATA FLOW, SILVER PRICES CONTINUED DOWNWARD MOVEMENT WHICH
WAS STARTED BY FED DECISIONS AND WEAK CHINA HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI. PRICE IS
CURRENTLY TAKING SUPPORT FROM 19,11 LEVEL.
TODAY, USA CORE PCE PRICE
INDEX, EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX, PERSONAL SPENDING, CHICAGO PMI AND MICHIGAN
CONSUMER SENTIMENT WILL BE FOLLOWED. ALSO, WE HAVE CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI
TOMORROW MORNING, WHEN MARKETS WILL BE CLOSED. BECAUSE OF THAT, CARRYING
POSITIONS SEEMS RISKY.
TECHNICALLY, TAKING SUPPORT FROM 19,11 LEVEL,
SILVER PRICES MIGHT AIM 19,31 LEVEL. IF PRICE BREAKS 19,11 SUPPORT DOWNWARDS
WITH DATA FLOW, THEN 18,88 LEVEL WILL BE FOLLOWED.
RESISTANCE: 19,31 -
19,50 - 19,68 SUPPORT: 19,11 - 18,88 - 18,65
USDJPY (TURNS ITS WAY TO
DOWNWARDS IN ASIAN SESSION)
DESPITE YESTERDAY`S WEAK USA DATA FLOW, USDJPY
PARITY MOVED UPWARDS BUT COULD NOT HOLD ON 102,80 LEVEL. YESTERDAY, USA GDP WAS
ANNOUNCED PARALLEL TO MARKET EXPECTATION, 3,2 PERCENT. JOBLESS CLAIMS WERE ALSO
ABOVE EXPECTED LEVEL, 348K. PENDING HOME SALES FELL BY 8,7 PERCENT
UNEXPECTEDLY. IN JAPAN, CPI AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION WERE PARALLEL TO MARKET
EXPECTATIONS. AFTER DATA FLOW, PARITY DECLINED TO 102,30 LEVEL.
TODAY, USA
CORE PCE PRICE INDEX, EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX, PERSONAL SPENDING, CHICAGO PMI AND
MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT WILL BE FOLLOWED.
TECHNICALLY, IF PARITY
BREAKS 102,30 LEVEL DOWNWARDS, SELLING PRESSURE MIGHT INCREASE AND PARITY MIGHT
AIM 101,90 SUPPORT. IF PARITY RECOVERS, THEN 102,80 LEVEL WOULD BE FOLLOWED.
PARITY SEEMS TO TURN ITS WAY INTO DOWNWARDS IN ASIAN SESSION.
RESISTANCE:
102,80 - 103,25 - 103,75 SUPPORT: 102,30 - 101,90 - 101,25
GBPUSD (1,6460
LEVEL SHOULD BE FOLLOWED)
GBPUSD PARITY RECOVERED A BIT FROM 1,6460 LEVEL
AFTER FALLING HARSHLY WITH DOLLAR GAINED VALUE AGAINST OTHER DEVELOPED MARKET
CURRENCIES. YESTERDAY, USA GDP WAS ANNOUNCED PARALLEL TO MARKET EXPECTATION,
3,2 PERCENT. JOBLESS CLAIMS WERE ALSO ABOVE EXPECTED LEVEL, 348K. PENDING HOME
SALES FELL BY 8,7 PERCENT UNEXPECTEDLY.
TODAY, USA CORE PCE PRICE INDEX,
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX, PERSONAL SPENDING, CHICAGO PMI AND MICHIGAN CONSUMER
SENTIMENT WILL BE FOLLOWED.
TECHNICALLY, FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1,6460 AND
1,6500 BANDS, IF GBPUSD PARITY BREAKS 1,6460 SUPPORT DOWNWARDS, SALES WOULD
PICK UP AND 1,6400 LEVEL WOULD BE AIMED. WITH POSSIBLE WEAK DATA FLOW FROM USA,
PARITY WOULD TEST 1,6500 LEVEL. IF THIS LEVEL IS BROKEN, 1,6540 LEVEL WOULD BE
AIMED.
RESISTANCE: 1,6500 - 1,6540 - 1,6590 SUPPORT: 1,6460 - 1,6405 -
1,6370





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